Afghanistan Three Years Later: Alliances and Rivalries
Sep 6, 2024
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The discussion highlights the evolving threat of the Islamic State Khorasan in Afghanistan, particularly after the U.S. withdrawal. Guests outline ISK's dual strategy of forming crucial alliances while also navigating rivalries. Insights on the impact of regional instability provide a deep dive into counterterrorism challenges. The implications of drone warfare and the complexities of 'over-the-horizon' operations are explored. Additionally, the importance of local media engagement in countering ISK narratives is emphasized.
The emergence of the Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) reflects its ability to thrive amid the power vacuum created by the U.S. withdrawal.
ISK's two-pronged strategy of forming alliances and exploiting local rivalries has significantly expanded its operational capabilities in the region.
The effectiveness of over-the-horizon counterterrorism strategies against ISK is limited by operational reach and the need for a comprehensive approach.
Deep dives
The Resilience and Rise of ISK
The emergence of the Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) in Afghanistan showcases its ability to thrive within a challenging operational environment. Despite the intense pressure from the Taliban and local Al-Qaeda factions, ISK quickly established itself as a formidable player in global terrorism, becoming one of the deadliest organizations worldwide. Factors contributing to its rise include the local historical context of jihadism, the exodus of seasoned militants due to military campaigns in the region, and the broader global jihadist movement following the declaration of the Islamic State's caliphate. By 2022, ISK had evolved to become the third deadliest terrorist group globally, demonstrating remarkable resilience and adaptability after the US withdrawal.
Exploiting Tensions and Alliances
ISK's strategy of forging key alliances and rivalries has proven essential to its operational success. By harnessing existing tensions among local militant groups, ISK built a diverse talent pipeline, capitalizing on the fragmentation within the Taliban and recruiting from organizations like the Pakistani Taliban and Al-Qaeda. This two-pronged approach has not only expanded ISK's ranks but also increased its ability to execute high-profile attacks and create operational networks across Afghanistan and Pakistan. The group's ability to present itself as a legitimate alternative to local insurgencies has allowed it to gain both traction and legitimacy among disenfranchised Afghan citizens.
Adapting to the Security Vacuum
Post US withdrawal from Afghanistan, ISK has adeptly capitalized on the resulting security vacuum to reorganize and expand its operational capabilities. The group has increasingly focused on external operations, using its established networks to inspire and direct attacks beyond its traditional borders, which includes attempts within Central Asian states and even high-profile attacks in Russia. This evolution highlights ISK's capacity to adapt its strategies in response to changing environmental pressures while maintaining its ideological coherence and operational objectives. As regional dynamics shift, addressing these challenges is crucial for U.S. policymakers and security analysts.
Over-the-Horizon Capabilities and Challenges
The concept of over-the-horizon capabilities has gained significance in the context of addressing threats from ISK, especially after the U.S. withdrawal. This strategy involves drone warfare and remote operations to monitor and target ISK without a significant military presence in Afghanistan. However, limitations such as insufficient operational reach and the inability to conduct comprehensive assessments of target areas complicate the feasibility of this approach. Policymakers must balance the temptation to rely solely on drone strikes with the recognition that a broader, integrated strategy is required to effectively address the evolving threat landscape posed by ISK.
Strategic Considerations for Policymakers
For effective counterterrorism strategies against ISK, U.S. policymakers must consider the dynamics of non-state actors in a post-withdrawal environment. This includes understanding the grievances within local populations and leveraging international partnerships to build a comprehensive strategy that engages with regional allies. Important elements of this approach involve addressing legacy issues related to returning fighters and fostering a competitive local media landscape to counter ISK's narratives. Preparing for potential strategic shocks is essential, along with ensuring that U.S. strategies remain adaptable to the shifting geopolitical environment and the persistent threats from organizations like ISK.
Episode 113 examines the challenges presented by the Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) in Afghanistan within the context of the three-year anniversary of U.S. withdrawal from the region.
Our guests share their extensive backgrounds, research, and practical experience related to the emergence of ISK in Afghanistan and Pakistan. They define the current operational environment that exists in the region with a particular focus on the power vacuum created by U.S. withdrawal in August of 2021. They then delve into how ISK adopted a two-pronged strategy of forging key alliances and rivalries to exploit tensions and build a diverse talent pipeline for their organization. Our guests also offer insight into the challenges of defining and addressing the ISK threat by evaluating the feasibility and limitations of “over-the-horizon” counterterrorism capabilities. Finally, they provide policy and strategy considerations for the future of counterterrorism operations.
LTC Paul Lushenko is an Assistant Professor and the Director of Special Operations at the U.S. Army War College. He earned his Ph.D. and M.A. in International Relations from Cornell University. Paul has deployed continuously, directing intelligence operations at the Battalion, Combined Task Force, and Joint Task Force levels. In his most recent operational assignment, Paul served as the Senior Intelligence Officer for the Joint Special Operations Task Force in Afghanistan.
The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners in the field of irregular warfare. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn.
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