Data Revisions Confirming What Voters Already Knew - Ep 993
Nov 24, 2024
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Dive into the contrasting sentiments at a recent gold conference amid rising prices and a cautious economic outlook. Delve into job creation revisions that challenge reported employment data and explore the impact of recent elections on economic narratives. Consider Bitcoin's future with a new Treasury secretary and skepticism towards its government backing. Also, discover the economic challenges Trump might face if re-elected, especially regarding fiscal policies during a recession. Expect humorous critiques of current economic absurdities too!
Despite higher gold prices, investor enthusiasm remains low, indicating ongoing skepticism within the gold market despite significant gains.
A major downward revision in non-farm payroll figures may reshape perceptions of the labor market, questioning the credibility of Federal Reserve policies.
The potential rise of Bitcoin under government policy could signal a shift towards digital assets, raising concerns for traditional economic frameworks.
Deep dives
Gold Market Sentiment
Despite a significant surge in gold prices, market sentiment remains subdued among investors according to recent discussions at a gold conference in New Orleans. The conference, marking its 50-year anniversary, had a relatively low turnout, reflecting a lack of excitement about gold's performance this year, even though prices reached around $2,715. This marked a notable increase, especially since gold was previously discussed concerning its potential to break above $2,000. The puzzling mood amidst rising prices suggests ongoing skepticism or fear within the gold market that has yet to fully reconcile with the commodity's upward trend.
Revisions to Job Reports
Recent revelations indicate a forthcoming major downward revision in non-farm payroll figures which may affect labor reports from June 2023 to June 2024. Analysts anticipate that the government will revise previously reported job gains downwards by over a million, significantly altering the narrative of a strong labor market promoted by the administration. This downward correction sheds light on the dubious validity of job creation statistics often celebrated during market reporting and indicates a worsening employment scenario. The credibility of Federal Reserve policy, which was based on these optimistic job reports, may also be questioned as market realities shift.
Bitcoin and Government Relations
The growing influence of Bitcoin and the crypto industry in government policy has sparked concerns among traditional economic observers. A new Treasury Secretary, rumored to favor Bitcoin, may push for policies that could leverage government resources to promote cryptocurrency adoption. This transition symbolizes a dramatic shift where Bitcoin, originally positioned as a decentralized alternative to government currency, could become entwined with government backing and investment. Such developments raise questions about the implications for fiat currencies and the potential economic consequences of prioritizing digital assets over traditional financial prudence.
Trump's Economic Strategies
The possibility of Trump implementing a 'shadow Fed chairman' concept indicates a desire to exert control over monetary policy and ensure alignment with his economic strategies. By nominating a candidate to succeed Jerome Powell publicly, Trump's administration could shape market expectations regarding monetary policy direction. However, skepticism remains about whether these strategies can effectively address deeper economic issues such as ongoing deficits and rising interest costs. The challenges of navigating recession pressures while pushing for tax cuts and stimulating the economy place significant strain on the new administration and its fiscal strategy.
Government Debt and Fiscal Responsibility
The current state of U.S. fiscal policy reveals growing concerns regarding the sustainability of national debt, which has surged past $36 trillion. An incoming Treasury Secretary will be tasked with managing this debt while attempting to promote fiscal responsibility amidst increasing interest rates and ongoing deficits. The administration's strategies, including potential measures to alter tax policies and integrate tariffs, may exacerbate rather than alleviate financial pressures. This backdrop positions the government in a precarious situation, reliant on continued borrowing under the guise of economic growth, illuminating the cyclical challenges plaguing U.S. fiscal health.
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