War on the Rocks Assessing Ukraine's Prospects in 2025
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Jan 27, 2025 Mike Kofman, an expert on Russian military affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, shares deep insights into the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. He discusses the current military dynamics, particularly the challenges both sides face in manpower and recruitment. The conversation highlights Ukraine's evolving strategies and the slowdown of Russian advances since December. Kofman emphasizes the impact of economic factors and the complexities of war negotiation, setting a thought-provoking perspective on the conflict's future.
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Slowdown in Russian Offensive
- Russian offensive operations visibly slowed down in December, possibly due to weather or Ukrainian adaptations.
- Fighting intensified in Kursk with North Korean troops involved, resulting in significant losses but also gains for them.
Russian and Ukrainian Troop Positions
- Russian forces are mostly fixed in their southern positions, with Ukrainian defenses holding around Arikiv.
- The Russian push on Pukrovsk could isolate the city and allow for further westward advances.
Ukrainian 155th Brigade Scandal
- Ukraine's 155th Brigade, trained and equipped by France, suffered desertions and became a scandal.
- This highlighted the issue of creating new brigades instead of reinforcing existing ones.