War on the Rocks
Assessing Ukraine's Prospects in 2025
Jan 27, 2025
Mike Kofman, an expert on Russian military affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, shares deep insights into the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. He discusses the current military dynamics, particularly the challenges both sides face in manpower and recruitment. The conversation highlights Ukraine's evolving strategies and the slowdown of Russian advances since December. Kofman emphasizes the impact of economic factors and the complexities of war negotiation, setting a thought-provoking perspective on the conflict's future.
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Quick takeaways
- The slowdown in Russian offensive operations due to adverse weather reflects broader military challenges and uncertain strategic objectives on both sides.
- Ukraine's significant manpower issues highlight the need for a strategic shift towards replenishing experienced units rather than creating new, less effective brigades.
Deep dives
Slowdown of Russian Offensive Operations
Recent months have seen a noticeable slowdown in Russian offensive operations in Ukraine, particularly since December. Factors contributing to this deceleration include adverse weather conditions that significantly grounded aircraft and reduced airstrikes. Additionally, recent fighting in the Kursk area reflects both Russian gains and the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces, highlighting a complex battlefield dynamic. While Russia has managed some territorial advances, the sustainability of these gains and the strategic objectives behind them remain uncertain.
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