Lumida Wealth : Non-Consensus Invest Beyond the Ordinary Eurasia Group on Geopolitics and New Trade Order
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Apr 18, 2025 Rob Kahn, Managing Director and Chief Economist at the Eurasia Group, explores the intricate dance between geopolitics and economics. He discusses the implications of US tariff policies on global trade, shedding light on the challenges facing US manufacturing and the impact on small businesses. The conversation also covers the future of digital assets in trade agreements and how current political dynamics influence financial markets. Kahn’s insights reveal the complexities investors must navigate in today’s volatile landscape.
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Unprecedented U.S. Tariff Levels
- US tariffs under President Trump are at levels not seen since the early 1900s.
- This rapid and unprecedented trade policy experiment risks breaking global economic links dangerously.
Multiple Tariff Objectives Conflict
- Tariffs serve many goals: leverage in trade talks, protectionism, manufacturing revival, and revenue.
- Multiple conflicting objectives complicate trade policy and heighten economic risks.
Market Shift From Temporary To Permanent
- Markets initially treated tariffs as temporary shocks but now see permanent economic shifts.
- Declining confidence in the U.S. may erode its rule of law and global investment appeal.