WSJ Opinion: Potomac Watch How Good Is Trump's Trade Deal With China?
Oct 30, 2025
The hosts delve into Trump's bold claim of a '12 out of 10' meeting with Xi and his recent tariff reductions. They discuss how the current trade truce mainly restores the previous U.S.-China status quo rather than yielding significant gains. The complexities of rare-earth exports and technological controls are explored, alongside the Federal Reserve's surprising rate cut amid inflation concerns. The balance between political motives and economic realities in trade decisions creates a rich discussion about future U.S. strategies.
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Trade Truce Largely Restores Status Quo
- The China truce mostly restores the status quo and averts a wider trade shock that would have hurt both economies.
- Rare-earths access and soybean purchases were resumed, but many concessions look temporary and repeatable annually.
Rare-Earths Reprieve Is Temporary Leverage
- The rare-earths reprieve avoids an acute supply shock but likely creates an annual bargaining dynamic.
- Paul Gigot warns the U.S. may pay recurring political or economic costs to secure these critical inputs.
Export Controls Eased But High-End Chips Restricted
- The deal eases export-control enforcement on subsidiaries, effectively relaxing some chip restrictions.
- Alicia Finley notes advanced NVIDIA 'black gold' chips still appear restricted, preserving some limits.