Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 70: Is a Correction Coming? With Vincent Delaurd.
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Jul 14, 2025 Vincent Delaurd, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, discusses a bold thesis on a potential "reverse currency crisis" in Asia that could challenge the US dollar's dominance. He explores the weakening dollar and emerging strength in Asian currencies, offering insights into gold, oil, and Latin American investments. Delaurd also predicts how these shifts could impact U.S. inflation and overall financial strategies, and whether we might anticipate a market correction as forces behind the 1997 crisis appear to have flipped.
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July CPI Could Trigger Correction
- The July CPI inflation data is expected to be significantly worse than June's due to seasonal adjustment reversal and tariff impacts.
- A hotter inflation reading may trigger market corrections and push bond yields higher, undermining prospects of rate cuts this year.
July Correction Despite Strong Economy
- Despite a strong economy, Vincent maintains a call for a market correction in July driven by tariff concerns, hawkish Fed actions, and liquidity shifts.
- This correction would be a sentiment and positioning adjustment, not an economic recession, making it complex to time.
Market Rally Led by Retail, Foreign Hesitant
- Retail investors led the strong market rally, supported by momentum and volatility targeting funds, but foreign investors remain cautious, hedging dollar exposure.
- Foreigners avoid selling US stocks outright despite political and fiscal risks due to lack of better alternatives.