Economists Tom Porcelli and Sarah House react to the latest PCE data, discussing personal spending exceeding forecasts, implications on inflation rates, challenges in achieving the 2% PCE target, Chairman Powell's stance on inflation, services sector improvements, and analysis of hiring data and market reactions.
Inflation data for February reveals a 2.8% year-over-year rate, emphasizing factors affecting prices like goods and services.
Labor market growth prompts concerns about sustainability in consumer spending, necessitating real income stability for economic health.
Deep dives
Inflation Data Analysis
The podcast delves into the recent inflation data regarding the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for February, highlighting key figures such as a 2.8% year-over-year inflation rate, the core deflator at 2.8%, and personal income deflator at 3.1%. This data compares economists' expectations and discusses factors impacting inflation like goods and service prices, energy costs, and food prices.
Labor Market and Economic Growth Outlook
The discussion shifts towards the labor market and its impact on consumer spending and economic growth, focusing on wages and salaries rising by 0.8% in February. Insights reveal concerns about sustainability with a drawdown in savings and credit usage driving spending, emphasizing the need for growth and stability in real disposable income for long-term economic health.
Fed Reaction and Market Speculation
Regarding the Federal Reserve's stance, experts analyze Chairman Powell's forthcoming remarks in response to the inflation data, predicting no significant changes in messaging. The relationship between market volatility, interest rates, and housing price trends are explored, anticipating the Fed's continued vigilance on inflation targets and the potential implications on rate adjustments and market sentiments.
Bloomberg's Nathan Hager breaks down the latest PCE data with Bloomberg Economics and Policy Editor Michael McKee. Plus, reaction to the data from Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, and Wells Fargo Senior Economist Sarah House.