IDF INVADES LEBANON, IRAN STRIKES - with Nadav Eyal and Matt Levitt
Oct 2, 2024
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Nadav Eyal, a prominent Israeli journalist, and Matt Levitt, a counterterrorism expert, dive deep into the recent Israeli military operations against Hezbollah. They discuss the shifting dynamics of the conflict and the implications of Hezbollah's weakened capabilities on Iran's military strategy. The conversation highlights the escalated U.S. stance towards Iran and the urgent need for effective communication regarding U.S. policy. Personal stories of fear and insecurity among Israelis paint a stark picture of their current reality, while reflections on unity among the global Jewish community underscore resilience amidst adversity.
Israel's military operations against Hezbollah mark a significant escalation, reflecting a strategic shift in regional power dynamics since the 10/07 War.
Despite substantial losses, Hezbollah retains a formidable rocket arsenal, underscoring its ongoing threat and the need for Israel to sustain deterrence.
Iran's missile attack on Israel highlights rising hostilities and presents an opportunity for Israel to target Iranian assets in retaliation.
Deep dives
Significant Escalation in Conflict
Recent developments in the conflict have seen Israel conduct a series of military operations against Hezbollah, marking a significant escalation since the war began nearly a year ago. Israel's efforts included the Pager attack, which targeted mid-level Hezbollah operatives, and a subsequent airstrike that resulted in the death of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and many other leaders. The Israeli Air Force also targeted Hezbollah's rocket and missile arsenals near the northern border, demonstrating a proactive approach to dismantling threats before they could manifest. Furthermore, the initiation of a limited ground operation into Lebanon focused on destroying Hezbollah's underground infrastructure underscores Israel's determination to neutralize immediate threats from the group.
Hezbollah's Diminished Threat
Despite the significant losses incurred by Hezbollah, including the elimination of around 50% of their rockets, the group still retains a considerable arsenal estimated between 75,000 to 100,000 rockets. The operational capabilities of Hezbollah have been weakened due to significant leadership losses and the moral for cross-border raids having diminished. While Hezbollah remains a formidable adversary, its ability to coordinate large-scale offensives has been severely compromised, allowing Israel to maintain a level of strategic advantage. Analysts suggest that Hezbollah may resort to international operations as an alternative modus operandi to its diminished capabilities on the battlefield.
U.S. Perspectives on Israel's Military Achievements
The recent Israeli successes against Hezbollah have resonated positively among U.S. officials, especially given the historical grievances against Hezbollah for past attacks on American interests. The targeting of preeminent figures linked to past acts of terrorism has been viewed as a significant achievement, fostering a sense of justice and resolution. However, concerns remain regarding the potential for escalation by Hezbollah and Iran in response to ongoing Israeli operations. Overall, there seems to be a growing appreciation for Israel's military and intelligence capabilities among former and current U.S. officials, framing Israel's victories as beneficial for broader American interests in the region.
Leadership and Deterrence Strategy
Israel's operations have illustrated a calculated approach to restoring deterrence in the region, primarily through its focused actions against Hezbollah. The utilization of intelligence to anticipate Hezbollah's maneuvers has played a crucial role in Israel's operational success, highlighting a transformation post-2006. Despite recognizing the current stage of conflict, analysts emphasize the importance of sustaining a credible deterrent against future threats. As Israel reflects on its operational successes, there is also recognition of the need for diplomatic engagement to reshape regional relationships amid ongoing security challenges.
Implications of Iranian Missile Attacks
The recent Iranian missile attack on Israel signifies an escalation in hostilities and represents the Iranian regime's intent to assert itself amidst the regional conflicts. Analysts speculate that this marked retaliation may open doors for Israel's military to operate more aggressively against Iranian assets, should the circumstances permit. Additionally, the attack has presented the U.S. with a clearer rationale to support Israel in any retaliatory measure against Iran. While the attack served to showcase Iran's capabilities, it has also prompted discussions on the potential vulnerabilities of Iran to counter-strikes and the strategic consequences for Israel's ongoing military strategy.
The past couple days have seen some of the most fast-moving and potentially region-altering events since the 10/07 War broke out. To help us better understand what has happened and where events are likely heading, we are joined by:
NADAV EYAL — a columnist for Yediiot. He is one of Israel’s leading journalists. Eyal has been covering Middle-Eastern and international politics for the last two decades for Israeli radio, print and television news.
MATTHEW LEVITT — the director of the Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Matt served as deputy assistant secretary for intelligence and analysis at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. He later served as a counterterrorism advisor to the special envoy for Middle East regional security. Previously, Matt was a counterterrorism intelligence analyst at the FBI.
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