538 Cross Over Special : Is Britain In The Middle Of A Constitutional Crisis?
Aug 30, 2019
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Galen Druk, host of the 538 Politics podcast, explores the pressing constitutional crisis sparked by Boris Johnson's request to suspend Parliament during Brexit negotiations. He delves into the tension between executive power and legislative authority, examining potential no-confidence votes and the implications for Scottish independence. The discussion highlights the erosion of democratic norms amidst accusations of norm-breaking and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit's outcome, all set against the backdrop of shifting political alliances.
Boris Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament significantly reduces legislative debate time on Brexit, sparking accusations of a constitutional crisis.
The government's strategy, influenced by Dominic Cummings, aims to consolidate support for an election while framing opposition efforts as undemocratic.
Deep dives
Boris Johnson's Suspension of Parliament
Boris Johnson's request for the Queen to prorogue Parliament for a month has significant implications for the Brexit process. This move effectively limits the time Members of Parliament (MPs) have to debate and potentially prevent a no-deal Brexit, with the deadline approaching on October 31. Critics, including the Speaker of the House of Commons, have labeled this decision as a constitutional outrage, fearing it undermines parliamentary democracy. The suspension means that when Parliament resumes, it will enter a new session, causing all prior legislative efforts to start anew, thus complicating opposition efforts to halt the government's strategy.
Political Strategy Behind Prorogation
The political strategy behind Johnson's decision appears to be orchestrated by his advisor, Dominic Cummings, aiming to weaken the opposition by provoking outrage and consolidating support for a general election. By reducing the parliamentary window to act against his government, Johnson's administration might strengthen its position in upcoming electoral contests. There is an underlying belief that Johnson still prefers an orderly Brexit, with a potentially revised deal acceptable to Parliament, but may also aim to present a narrative of a 'people versus Parliament' election. As the deadline approaches, the government seeks to demonstrate that Parliament does not obstruct the Brexit process, thereby supporting a narrative favorable to Johnson.
Implications of a Constitutional Crisis
While the prorogation of Parliament has sparked accusations of a constitutional crisis, experts suggest that it reflects a deeper political crisis rather than a straightforward legal violation. The British constitutional framework, based on conventions rather than a single written document, complicates the matter as it leads to uncertainty about how courts may interpret government actions. As legal actions emerge in response to the prorogation, the potential outcomes remain ambiguous, underscoring a significant political confrontation between the Legislative and Executive branches. This scenario raises fears about what might unfold if the government outright refuses to comply with parliamentary decisions, especially if a vote of no confidence occurs.
Public Sentiment and Potential Outcomes
Polling indicates a consistent majority of the British public prefers remaining in the European Union or believes Brexit was a mistake, yet it remains unclear if this sentiment equates to a desire to overturn the referendum result. The government, led by Johnson, has crafted a narrative suggesting that any attempt to counter the Brexit outcome undermines democratic choice, framing opposition as elitism. The upcoming landscape of a general election brings uncertainty, as it will occur against the backdrop of ongoing political drama, and could focus more on broader domestic issues rather than solely Brexit. As various factions within Parliament and the public react to the uncertainty of a no-deal Brexit, the complexities of voter behavior and sentiment will greatly influence political dynamics leading into October 31.
Special cross over episode with the FiveThirtyEight politics podcast from America, hosted by Galen Druke.
On Wednesday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that he had asked the queen to suspend parliament in September, reducing the amount of time lawmakers will have to debate legislation related to Brexit. John Bercow, the speaker of the House of Commons ,called the move a “constitutional outrage.” In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Helen Thompson and David Runciman discuss what qualifies as a constitutional crisis and whether they think Britain has reached that point.
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