Consider This from NPR What to expect after the sudden death of Iran's president, Ebrahim Raisi
May 20, 2024
Kareem Sajjapur, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and expert on Iranian politics, dives into the aftermath of President Ebrahim Raisi's sudden death. He discusses the potential for instability in Iran and the region, exploring the power dynamics and likely successors. Sajjapur highlights the key tensions between the regime and the populace, along with the implications for future governance. He also speculates on the effects of this leadership change on Iran's foreign relations, particularly with the US and Israel.
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Power Dynamics in Iran
- Iran's presidency isn't very powerful; the Supreme Leader and clerics hold the real authority.
- Raisi's death creates uncertainty around succession, especially with Khamenei's son as a potential heir.
Succession and Instability
- While Khamenei's son is now the sole potential successor, his lack of popularity and legitimacy could lead to instability.
- This could force him to rely on repressive forces, potentially leading to a military government or regime collapse.
Helicopter Crash
- Despite Iran's advanced missile program, Raisi was flying in a dated American helicopter in poor weather.
- This raises questions, given Iran's adversaries and internal politics.