Bloomberg Talks
IEA's Fatih Birol Talks Oil Markets
Feb 13, 2024
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, discusses the outlook for oil markets, including factors affecting demand and prices. He predicts a comfortable price evolution with moderate growth throughout 2024. The speaker also analyzes physical tightness, oversupply concerns, tensions in the Red Sea, and weakening Chinese demand. Additionally, he discusses the I.E.A.'s prediction of oil demand peak before 2030 due to clean energy initiatives and electric cars.
10:39
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Quick takeaways
- The growth in oil supply from countries like the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana is expected to exceed global oil demand growth in 2024, resulting in a comfortable and moderately priced oil market throughout the year.
- The speaker expresses positivity towards the increased oil supply from the Americas, which helps lower oil prices and reduce the ability of countries to manipulate prices, but warns that any major escalation in Middle East tensions could lead to a significant increase in oil prices, negatively impacting the global economy.
Deep dives
Oil Demand Growth Weaker in 2024
In the podcast episode, the speaker discusses the expectation of weaker oil demand growth in 2024 compared to the previous year. The slower economic growth in China and the electrification of the transportation system are cited as the main factors contributing to this trend. On the supply side, the growth in oil production from countries like the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana is expected to exceed the global oil demand growth, resulting in a comfortable and moderately priced oil market throughout 2024, barring any major geopolitical turmoil or extreme weather events.
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