Phil Voelker of AAMA - Understanding the State of the Economy and Markets

May 9, 2023

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The current state of the market and economy is a topic of great concern for many people. With inflation still on the rise, interest rates increasing, recession risk looming, and banking crises, it is understandable that individuals and businesses alike are left uncertain about their future.

In this episode, Rusty and Robyn talk with Phil Voelker, Chief Investment Officer at Advanced Asset Management Advisors (AAMA). In his role, Phil directs and manages AAMA's investment policy strategy. Throughout his career, Phil has pursued and secured a broad spectrum of objectives, from short-term cash management to aggressive growth of investments. Before joining AAMA, Phil served as Chief Investment Officer for a large regional investment firm, directing its multi-billion dollar investment portfolio.

With over 40 years of experience managing securities portfolios, Phil answers the top questions and concerns about the market and how it compares to historical experience. He also shares his view on inflation, interest rates, recession risk, and the banking crisis.

Key Takeaways

[03:03] - Phil's career history in investment management.
[03:51] - The role AAMA plays in the industry.
[04:52] - Phil's assessment of the current banking situation.
[06:09] - Phil's take on the current inflation environment.
[10:06] - Are we heading for a recession?
[11:54] - What Phil thinks about the current volatility in the stock market, the economy, and corporate earnings.
[17:25] - How the current inflation compares with the long-term experience.
[19:34] - One of the key points to remember in 2023.
[21:42] - How AAMA positions its portfolios in response to market and economic conditions.
[22:44] - Phil's favorite investment idea.
[24:14] - How Phil maintains his energy to perform at a high level.
[25:08] - The people Phil is grateful to on a professional level.
[26:34] - Phil's recommendations for content.

Quotes

[09:47] - "There's a disconnect between what the Fed's saying and what the market is expecting. Unless something major breaks, we don't expect a pivot." ~ Phil Voelker

[19:08] - "From a historical perspective, today's interest rates are not excessive, certainly not relative to inflation. They're not excessive relative to long-term averages. And it would be nice for everyone if the Fed would stay away from trying to control interest rates and let the market figure it out." ~ Phil Voelker

[20:49] - "It's sad that when the Fed's done fighting inflation and it drops back to 2%, that doesn't mean anybody recovers their dollars' purchasing power. It means that they're losing it more slowly than they had before." ~ Phil Voelker

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