Navigating uncertainty in cat risk (379)

Catastrophe models have come a long way - but are decision-makers keeping up?

In this panel from InsTech’s The future of catastrophe risk: where science meets reality, Alice Kaye (Inigo), Caroline McMullan (Verisk) and host Dickie Whitaker (Oasis LMF) confront the challenges of turning sophisticated risk models into clear, actionable decisions.

Together, they explore why uncertainty is often more valuable than the average, how human biases still cloud our understanding of extreme events, and what’s needed to close the communication gap between modellers, underwriters and boards. This conversation gets real about the behavioural, structural and cultural shifts the insurance industry must make to better navigate risk in an increasingly volatile world.

What you'll learn in this episode:

• Why point estimates often mislead decision-makers - and how scenarios can bring data to life
• The role of behavioural bias in catastrophe risk assessment (think hindsight, anchoring and mean reversion)
• How leading insurers like Inigo are integrating model outputs into daily underwriting and board-level strategy
• The importance of early-career training to build confidence in managing uncertainty
• How the interface between climate science, data science and vulnerability modelling is evolving
• Why pre-competitive collaboration with academia is critical for the industry's future

If you like what you’re hearing, please leave us a review on whichever platform you use or contact Matthew Grant on LinkedIn.

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Continuing Professional Development

This InsTech Podcast Episode is accredited by the Chartered Insurance Institute (CII). By listening, you can claim up to 0.5 hours towards your CPD scheme.

By the end of this podcast, you should be able to meet the following Learning Objectives:

• Identify gaps in skills and training that hinder effective risk modelling and decision-making.
• Produce more informed underwriting decisions by integrating multiple views of risk.
• Summarise best practices for bridging the gap between research, modelling and commercial application.

If your organisation is a member of InsTech and you would like to receive a quarterly summary of the CPD hours you have earned, visit the Episode 379 page of the InsTech website or email cpd@instech.co to let us know you have listened to this podcast.

To help us measure the impact of the learning, we would be grateful if you would take a minute to complete a quick feedback survey.