Recovery Fantasy Persists Despite Recession Evidence – Ep. 138

* So far the month of February is just 4 trading days old, and already the U.S. dollar index is down just over 3 percent
* We closed January at 99.6 and we closed at 96.5
* Gold, going the other way, now up about $13 today, closing above $1,155; the price of gold is up almost 3.5% in the first 4 days of February
* That shows you that most of the move in gold is the result of the dollar going down
* This move is just getting started
* The markets are just beginning to price in the fact that the Fed is not going to raise rates in March
* They are pricing 3, rather than 4 rate hikes this year, and that's the only thing that is not driving the markets
* A more realistic look what the Fed is likely to do is to not raise rates, but cut them below zero
* Despite that we're seing all this momentum in the dollar and in gold
* Gold stocks are just soaring, many of these names have been up 5-10% each day in February
* None of this is attracting the attention of Wall Street
* A guest on CNBC today alluded to short covering as the reason for gold going up
* He commented on how lousy the fundamentals are for these stocks
* The fundamentals have never been lousy
* They have appeared lousy because there was so much belief that the dollar would continue to rise because the U.S. is having a genuine recovery and the Fed will continue to raise rates
* The media and Wall Street are still very biased; I was on CNBC Asia last night debating an American guest who touted the strength of the economy based on the strong jobs market, how household balance sheets are better than ever and real incomes are rising
* The only reason homeowners have better balance sheets is because they no longer have a house; home ownership is at a 50 year low
* While gas prices are lower, rents, healthcare and most other costs are going up
* It was an example of how the public ignores all the bad economic news and assumes that the economy is great
* Another writer for CNBC.com attributes gold's rise to low inflation
* He actually said that my explanation about the economy slowing with inflation did not make sense, because in his mind, high inflation is a result of a strong economy
* This is exactly backwards. Strong, productive economies keep prices low
* Weak economies that lack production end up having higher prices, and those weak economies produce budget deficits and the central banks have to print money, causing inflation
* The actual definition of inflation is an expansion of the money supply; higher prices are a result of the fact that the currency then buys less
* The government wants people to be confused about inflation and where it comes from because they are the source of the problem
* By blurring the meaning of inflation, it is easier to shift the blame for economic problems on everything else but monetary policy
* CNBC highlighted my call on gold, but omitted all the correct calls I have made, especially 3 recent market predictions:
* One: if the Fed raises rates, the stock market is going to tank

* Why did I say that the market was going to tank? The conventional wisdom that if the Fed is raising rates, the economy must be stronger - I said if the Fed raises rates it will be doing it into a weak economy. In fact, it probably happened in a recession


* Two: I said that there is no historical precedence for this monetary policy because we have been at zero interest rates for 7 years, so the effect of higher rates on the economy appears to have more effect because they have been talking about tightening for years

* I also said that if the Fed raised rates, gold prices would rise; it was unanimous that gold would collapse.  Gold is up more than $100 since the initial knee-jerk sellof
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