Super Data Science: ML & AI Podcast with Jon Krohn 942: Odds of AGI by 2040? LEAP Expert Forecasts and Workforce Implications
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Nov 21, 2025 Curious about the future of AI? Experts predict AI could assist 18% of U.S. work hours by 2030. Interestingly, AI may consume around 7% of U.S. electricity within the same timeframe. By 2040, AI could reach a transformational level akin to electricity. There's a one-in-three chance of revolutionary changes happening by then. Recent model advancements have surpassed expectations, raising safety concerns. To navigate this shift, leaders are encouraged to focus on reskilling and investing in new skills.
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AI Assists Nearly One-Fifth Of Work Hours
- LEAP predicts AI will assist about 18% of U.S. work hours by 2030, up from ~2% today.
- Experts also expect AI training and deployment to consume ~7% of U.S. electricity within the same timeframe.
AI Seen As A Century-Defining Technology
- By 2040 LEAP's modal prediction rates AI as an eight-out-of-ten technology, akin to electricity or the automobile.
- Experts also assign ~1-in-3 probability AI reaches level nine (printing press/industrial revolution) by 2040.
Short-Horizon Forecasting Captures Fast Progress
- Short-horizon forecasting helps weight more-accurate forecasters using frequent, testable questions.
- Recent model gains (e.g., Gemini 2.5 Deep Think) show progress can outpace expectations on expert-level benchmarks.