Many people feel investing in the share market is a complex and scary concept. This is often due to a lack of understanding.
I have written a number of blogs about the advantages of index investing. However, I thought it might be useful to take a step back and take a look at the basics of share market investing.
How does the stock market work?
The share market is merely a place where people come to buy and sell shares. Some people will be buyers, and some will be sellers. They will each bid what price they are willing to buy or sell a particular stock. A deal will be done when they meet in the middle and agree on price. This is all done electronically (although, in Australia, prior to 1990, it was done on chalk boards).
You can see an example of this in the screen-print below (for CBA). As you can see, there are 9 people that would like to buy 455 shares in CBA shares for a price of $79.77. There are also 16 people that are prepared to sell 519 shares for $79.79. Seconds after taking this screen shot, the shares traded or $79.78 (i.e. the mid-point). These transactions happen all the time and this is how shares are valued by the market.
By the way, this is called market depth. That is, the number of buyers and sellers (and number of units) interested in trading a particular stock. It is important to invest in a stock with good depth to ensure your investment is liquid and fairly priced. More on this soon.
What is a company worth?
Obviously, the ‘market’ determines the value of a stock. As stated above, the market is made up of many buyers and sellers (most of them professionals).
There is a concept in financial theory called the
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EFH) which states that the price of a stock reflects all available information about that stock and therefore is an accurate indication of its intrinsic value. Whilst this theory has some merit, I believe that EFM is truer in the long run than it is in the short run. In the short run, popularity can drive stock prices, not fundamentals.
Fundamentally, the value of a company is simply the present value of its future cash flows (i.e. profit). That is, what is the total value of say the next 10 years of profit after applying a discount rate (which is like an interest rate) to account for the businesses risk.
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