Ukraine Goes into Kursk: A Dose of the "Russia Contingency" with Michael Kofman
Aug 10, 2024
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Michael Kofman, an expert on Russian military affairs, and Dara Massicot from the Carnegie Endowment delve into Ukraine's recent incursion into Kursk. They assess Ukrainian territorial gains and the complexities of urban warfare dynamics. The discussion highlights logistical challenges and the implications of Russian POWs' unexpected surrender behaviors. They analyze how these factors could shift the conflict's landscape, emphasizing the evolving nature of military operations as objectives become more fluid.
Ukrainian forces have swiftly captured key territories in Kursk, demonstrating effective coordination and posing challenges for Russian military response.
The offensive reveals systemic issues within the Russian military, potentially leading to shifts in leadership accountability and impacting future conflict dynamics.
Deep dives
Ukrainian Offensive Overview
Ukrainian forces have initiated an offensive into Russia's Kursk Oblast, achieving significant territorial gains early in the operation. They have reportedly captured around 350 square kilometers, including the town of Suzha, while advancing through various routes toward key settlements. However, despite this progress, the extent of actual control over these territories remains uncertain, as the implications for sustained occupation and governance are still being assessed. The offensive began on August 6th, and initial reports indicate a dynamic and fast-evolving situation, with many operational details likely lagging behind real-time developments.
Challenges on the Russian Side
The operation appears to pose significant embarrassment for Russian forces, who failed to adequately prepare for this Ukrainian incursion despite being aware of troop movements through their ISR capabilities. There are indications that Ukrainian elements involved were well-coordinated, with mixed units likely including regular forces and intelligence elements working together. This failure reflects broader systemic issues within the Russian military, such as the inability to respond effectively to rapid, dynamic operations, which has consistently proven challenging for them throughout the conflict. With public sentiment wavering and specific local grievances surfacing, responsibility for operational failures seems to be shifting among Russian leadership, potentially further destabilizing their control.
Strategic Objectives and Future Implications
The strategic goals behind Ukraine's offensive remain speculative but may include leveraging territorial gains to compel Russian withdrawals elsewhere, particularly from Kharkiv. There is discussion about creating a persistent foothold similar to the situation in Krinky, which would require Russia to divert significant military resources to counter territorial claims made on their own soil. Additionally, the operation serves as a litmus test for both sides, revealing troop readiness and the capacity for sustained engagement under ongoing pressures. Ultimately, the outcomes of this offensive could reshape the dynamics of the conflict, influencing future negotiations or military strategies as both sides adjust to unfolding realities.
This is part one of a two-parter on Ukraine's operation into the Russian oblast of Kursk and it's from our members-only show, "The Russia Contingency" with Michael Kofman. In this episode Mike discusses this fast developing situation with his colleague at the Carnegie Endowment, Dara Massicot. If you're a member, you can listen to part two. Become member at: https://warontherocks.com/membership.
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