Grocery prices, credit card debt, and your 401K (Two Indicators)
Apr 17, 2024
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The podcast discusses consumers' financial struggles despite some positive economic data, focusing on inflation, credit card delinquencies, and 401K withdrawals. It explores the impact of high grocery prices and efforts to combat unfair pricing using an old antitrust law. The episode also delves into the effectiveness and implications of the Robinson-Patman Act on grocery prices and antitrust laws.
Falling sales at Family Dollar reflect challenges faced by lower-income households due to reduced SNAP benefits.
Deep dives
Economic Pressures on Consumers: Credit Card Delinquencies
Credit card delinquency rates have been rising, with over 6% of credit card balances falling into serious delinquency. This increase is evident after a decline during the early pandemic period, indicating elevated financial distress. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes contributed to higher credit card rates, exacerbating difficulties for those with delinquent accounts. The situation is particularly concerning for younger and lower-income households, reflecting increased financial strain.
Impact on Lower-Income Households: Falling Sales at Family Dollar
Falling sales at Family Dollar, by 1% in a recent quarter, signal challenges faced by lower-income households. The reduction in SNAP benefits post-pandemic has impacted these households, leading to tough decisions on food purchases. The closure of Family Dollar stores adds additional pressure, potentially forcing shoppers to travel further or rely on food banks. This highlights the struggles faced by vulnerable communities due to economic changes.
Financial Concerns: Hardship Withdrawals from Retirement Accounts
Vanguard reported a record rise in hardship withdrawals from retirement accounts, reaching 3.6% in 2023. This increase, a sign of financial stress, contrasts with past figures, indicating a growing need for immediate funds among consumers. Changes in 401k plans and easier access to withdrawals have influenced these trends, with more data required to fully understand the implications of this growing practice on financial stability.
What's going on with consumers? This is one of the trickiest puzzles of this weird economic moment we're in. We've covered a version of this before under the term "vibecession," but it's safe to say, the struggle is in fact real. It is not just in our heads. Sure, sure, some data is looking great. But not all of it.
What's interesting, is exactly why the bad feels so much worse than the good feels good. Today on the show, we look into a few theories on why feelings are just not matching up with data. We'll break down some numbers and how to think about them. Then we look at grocery prices in particular, and an effort to combat unfair pricing using a mostly forgotten 1930's law. Will it actually help?
Today's episode is adapted from episodes for Planet Money's daily show, The Indicator. Subscribe here.