Why Bitcoin Will Crash Like Every Other 4 Year Cycle | Henrik Zeberg

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Sep 15, 2025

Henrik Zeberg, Head Macro Economist at Swiss Block, dives into the economic complexities surrounding cryptocurrencies and inflation. He discusses the inevitability of Bitcoin's cyclical crashes, drawing parallels with historical market behavior. Zeberg warns of a looming tech bust and a potential economic downturn fueled by high inflation and central bank policies. He also emphasizes the importance of historical lessons for navigating future market challenges, including a call for a monetary reset to stabilize global currencies.

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INSIGHT

Easing Means Late Cycle

Central bank easing signals a late-cycle, not early-cycle, economy and precedes deterioration.
Real economy measures like jobs and consumer confidence show the cycle is rolling over now.

INSIGHT

Markets Show Blow-Off Top Signs

The speed and scale of recent market gains match classic blow-off top behavior and exceed previous bubbles.
Tech, crypto, and housing valuations together create a larger, overlapping bubble danger.

INSIGHT

Consumer Weakness Drives The Downturn

The consumer is the fulcrum; worsening employment and capacity utilization signal deeper downturns ahead.
Companies have overcapacity and will stop hiring, amplifying the roll-over.

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Henrik Zeberg is the Head Macro Economist at Swiss Block. In this conversation we talk about the macro outlook, K-shaped economy, inflation, a potential big tech bust coming, why the 4-year bitcoin cycle is not going anywhere, and why Henrik believes risk assets may be in trouble.

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TimeStamps:

0:00 - Intro
2:14 - Where are we in the macro cycle?
10:41 - Are we getting a blow off top in risk assets?
13:14 - Historical stock market valuations vs today
26:36 - What happens in the next 12 months if we are in a bubble?
30:01 - Is bitcoin 4 year cycle different this time?
34:33 - Thoughts on where inflation is going
38:29 - The framework for being a good investor for the next 10 years
42:03 - What does the monetary reset look like?
45:54 - How to prepare your investing portfolio