Bank of Japan's upcoming rate decision and market pricing, APAC market outlooks, yen vs US dollar discussion, potential BOJ policy shift towards reducing stimulus, China's fiscal and monetary policies alignment, recent inflation data analysis in China, economic challenges in China and Japan, market bias towards rate cuts and US inflation data impact on the dollar.
Bank of Japan's possible shift to reduce stimulus indicated by refraining from buying stocks during sell-off, with economists divided on timing of rate increase.
Positive GDP growth, wage increases, and economic indicators support potential BOJ rate hike in March, adding to speculation about policy change.
Deep dives
Bank of Japan's Potential Policy Changes
The Bank of Japan's recent stock market behavior, refraining from buying stocks during a sell-off, indicates a possible policy shift towards reducing stimulus. Economists are divided on the timing, with 54% expecting a rate increase in April and 38% suggesting a move as soon as March. The possibility of the BOJ becoming net sellers of ETFs adds to the speculation, especially after positive economic indicators and wage growth data.
Factors Influencing Bank of Japan's Decision
Various economic factors play into the BOJ's decision-making process, such as positive GDP growth and upcoming wage figures indicating potential support for a rate hike in March. Reports of significant wage increases by companies like SoftBank and unions demanding higher wages contribute to the narrative supporting economic growth and policy change.
Market Speculation and Potential Market Impacts
The uncertainty surrounding the BOJ's policy direction, incrementalist approach, and potential implications on equity markets, particularly the Nikkei, raise concerns about market volatility. Repatriation of Japanese assets, reactions to CPI data, and US Treasury yields are all factors influencing market sentiment and the outlook for the dollar based on expectations of Fed policy changes.
Featuring: Paul Jackson, Bloomberg Economy Editor, joins us from Tokyo to talk about the Bank of Japan's upcoming rate decision and how markets are pricing different outcomes in.
Helen Qiao, Chief Greater China Economist at BofA Global Research, sits down with us to talk about APAC market outlooks.
David Finnerty, Bloomberg FX and Rates Strategist, joins us from Singapore to discuss the yen, the US dollar, and how the BOJ's decision + US CPI numbers will influence markets in the coming days.