Episode 64: Victor Haghani and James White, ”The Missing Billionaires”, host Rick Ferri
Nov 24, 2023
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Victor Haghani and James White, co-authors of 'The Missing Billionaires,' discuss investment decision-making, risk-sizing, and making better financial decisions. They emphasize the importance of risk decisions in wealth management. The podcast explores topics such as investment sizing, risk assessment, asset allocation, management fees, taxes as a portfolio cost, and the need for better financial decision-making to preserve and grow wealth.
Investors often make poor risk decisions about how much risk to take and when to take it, rather than poor investment decisions.
Investors should calibrate their risk aversion using various coin flip scenarios to align their investment allocation with their risk preferences.
Asset allocation should be adjusted based on changing risk and expected returns, allowing investors to increase exposure to high-return opportunities and reduce risk during market volatility.
Deep dives
The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions
Victor Hagoni and James White, co-authors of the book 'The Missing Billionaires', challenge conventional thinking in the financial services industry and provide original insights on better financial decision-making. With backgrounds in finance and mathematics, they discuss the importance of risk sizing and the relationship between risk aversion and investment sizing. They advocate for a dynamic asset allocation strategy based on market valuations and risk aversion. They emphasize the need for a personalized approach to investing and advise against relying solely on fixed asset allocation models. The authors also tackle topics such as tax considerations, spending policies, and the integration of human capital risk into investment decisions. They highlight the importance of aligning investment and spending strategies for long-term financial success.
Investment Sizing and Risk Tolerance
Hagoni and White stress the significance of investment sizing and risk tolerance in financial decision-making. They propose that investors should consider not only what to invest in, but also how much to invest. By calibrating their risk aversion using various coin flip scenarios, individuals can align their investment allocation with their risk preferences. The authors caution against over-investing in highly confident assets, highlighting that excessive confidence can lead to higher downside risks.
Variable Asset Allocation and Risk Management
Hagoni and White present the idea of variable asset allocation based on market valuations and risk premiums. They suggest that asset allocation should be adjusted according to the changing risk and expected returns of different asset classes. By dynamically managing asset allocation, investors can increase their exposure to high-return opportunities and reduce risk during periods of market volatility. The authors advocate for a systematic approach that combines expected returns, risk assessment, and personal risk aversion in determining optimal asset allocation.
Spending Policies and Wealth Management
The authors emphasize the importance of integrating spending policies with wealth management decisions. They advocate for proportional spending that adjusts based on changes in wealth, considering the volatility of both investment portfolios and human capital. Hagoni and White argue that investment choices should be aligned with spending needs to avoid depleting wealth or underutilizing it. They explore the concept of risk management through spending adjustments, and caution against decoupling investment and spending decisions.
Considerations on Taxation, Homeownership, and Asset Classes
Hagoni and White discuss the impact of taxes on investment decisions, emphasizing the need to consider the tax efficiency of investment options. They encourage individuals to weigh the potential costs and risks of holding highly appreciated assets against tax obligations. The authors also touch on the role of homeownership as an investment and stress the importance of diversification outside of one's primary residence. They express caution when investing in commodities, artwork, collectibles, and cryptocurrencies, citing the inherent complexities and uncertainties involved in these asset classes.
Victor Haghani and James White are co-authors of "The Missing Billionaires, A Guide to Better Financial Decisions." Victor is also the founder and CIO of Elm Wealth and David is the CEO, where they implement these concepts for their clients. This fascinating book discusses investment decision-making and risk-sizing and how to make better financial decisions with your wealth.
Markets have behaved very well for 100 years, resulting in real profits for investors. However, few rich families from the early 1900s have been able to retain their wealth despite exceptional returns in the markets. The problem isn’t that people make poor decisions about what to invest in, they make poor “risk decisions” about how much risk to take and when to take it.
This podcast is hosted by Rick Ferri, CFA, a long-time Boglehead and investment adviser. The Bogleheads are a group of like-minded individual investors who follow the general investment and business beliefs of John C. Bogle, founder and former CEO of the Vanguard Group. It is a conflict-free community where individual investors reach out and provide education, assistance, and relevant information to other investors of all experience levels at no cost. The organization supports a free forum at Bogleheads.org, and the wiki site is Bogleheads® wiki.
Since 2000, the Bogleheads' have held national conferences in major cities nationwide. There are also many Local Chapters in the US and even a few Foreign Chapters that meet regularly. New Chapters are being added regularly. All Bogleheads activities are coordinated by volunteers who contribute their time and talent.
This podcast is supported by the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy, a non-profit organization approved by the IRS as a 501(c)(3) public charity on February 6, 2012. Your tax-deductible donation to the Bogle Center is appreciated.
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