Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Former Wall Street Bull Now Expects Stocks To Fall 15-20% This Year | Mark Newton, Fundstrat
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Jan 27, 2026 Mark Newton, Fundstrat’s head of technical strategy and veteran market analyst, warns of a likely 15–20% S&P pullback this year. He explains cycle-driven timing for a choppy spring and Q3 correction. He highlights sector rotation into energy, materials and industrials, and discusses tactical hedges, plus the technical backdrop for gold, silver and commodities.
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Choppy Year Ahead With Deep Correction
- Mark Newton expects a choppy 2026 with a potential 15–20% S&P drawdown starting late Feb–Mar and extending into Q3.
- He sees this as a consolidation within a longer-term bull, not a secular bear market ending.
Tech Pullback Could Hide Broader Strength
- Weakness will likely concentrate in large-cap tech, which can pull indexes lower despite breadth gains elsewhere.
- Broader sector participation (energy, materials, transports) may allow active managers to outperform.
Adjust Exposure Based On Trends
- Tailor moves to your risk tolerance: raise cash, hedge with puts or VIX calls, or shift exposure away from tech if trends break.
- Watch daily trends and rotate into safety sectors or treasuries when technicals deteriorate.