Rate Cut Chaos: Inside the Fed’s July Meeting Standoff w/Tony Greer

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Jul 31, 2025

Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and a seasoned macro trading veteran, shares his insights on the latest Fed meeting and market reactions. He discusses the implications of the Fed's no-rate-cut decision and shares perspectives on why Bitcoin might outperform gold in 2025. Greer breaks down the surprising reversal of the U.S. dollar, analyzes the impact of political pressures from Trump on interest rates, and highlights how recent trade agreements may fuel a market bull run. Curious about retail investors? Greer weighs in on whether they're truly 'dumb money' or an emerging force.

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INSIGHT

Dollar Reversal Impacts Metals

The recent reversal in the US dollar suggests an oversold condition was corrected.
This dollar strength pressures metals like gold and silver, impacting related markets.

INSIGHT

Trump's Impact on Rates and Dollar

Trump's political efforts aim to push interest rates lower to aid housing affordability.
This dynamic drives technical unwinding of dollar shorts and impacts gold's outlook.

INSIGHT

Housing Drives Rate Cut Push

Housing unaffordability is a key reason for pushing rate cuts despite strong economy.
Lower mortgage rates would stimulate housing and broader economy, benefiting the stock market.

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The Fed just did nothing — again. No rate cut. But markets went haywire anyway. What’s going on? Is Jerome Powell bluffing? Are gold bugs in denial? And why are traders like Tony Greer suddenly eyeing Bitcoin over precious metals?

In today’s episode of Milk Road Macro, we break down everything from the July FOMC meeting to the unseen forces driving the dollar, equities, crypto, and commodities. Legendary trader Tony Greer (ex-Goldman Sachs, founder of TG Macro) joins us to explain why Trump’s pressure on rates, massive ETF inflows into Bitcoin, and gold’s fake-out rally could define the second half of 2025.

This is the kind of deep macro breakdown you won’t get on CNBC.

In this episode, you’ll learn:

👉 Why the Fed’s “no-cut” stance might be more hawkish than it seems

👉 How the U.S. dollar pulled off a surprise reversal — and what that means for your bags

👉 Why gold may be headed for a steep correction (and what the Barron’s cover curse has to do with it)

👉 Why Tony Greer believes Bitcoin is trading better than gold in 2025

👉 What Trump’s rate-cut crusade has to do with housing affordability — and the 2024 election

👉 How recent global trade deals are quietly fueling a bull run

👉 The truth about retail investors: are they still “dumb money”? Or are they outsmarting the institutions?

👉 The one chart Tony is watching to predict the market’s next move (hint: it's not the S&P)

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🌍 Macro moves markets, get ahead of the game with Milk Road Macro Newsletter:

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🎙 GUEST INFO 🎙

Tony Greer: https://x.com/TgMacro

Newsletter: https://tgmacro.com/the-navigator/

📃 Disclaimer 📃

The information presented in this video is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered as financial, legal. The views and opinions expressed by the speakers, are their own and do not constitute professional advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries significant risks, including the potential for substantial losses.