The Numbers Are the Liberals up a lot, a bit, or not at all?
Jan 30, 2025
The podcast dives into the unclear trends of polling data affecting the Liberal Party, especially after Trudeau's resignation. There's speculation about a possible uptick in support and how it ties into Ontario's election. The hosts highlight the shifting dynamics in the Liberal leadership race, scrutinizing contenders like Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland. They also address polling challenges, especially with low voter turnout, and analyze the implications of fresh polls in Quebec for the sovereignty movement and party strategies.
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Liberal Uptick Uncertainty
- The polls show a potential Liberal uptick since Justin Trudeau's resignation.
- There's disagreement on the size of this uptick, especially regarding the Ontario election.
Ecos Poll as Outlier
- Three polls (Nanos, Leger, Abacus) show similar Conservative and Liberal support.
- Ecos's poll, however, shows significantly different numbers, making it an outlier.
Liberals' Potential 'Normal' Defeat
- The Liberals might see 25% support as a relief, avoiding a disastrous outcome.
- This would represent a 'normal' defeat rather than a potential third or fourth-place finish.