SI180: Data Versus Stories & The "Moscow Rules" ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Feb 19, 2022

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Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Trend Following versus Momentum strategies, the need to be humble about making economic forecasts, how Central Bank policies affect Trend Following performance, Cathie Wood and ARKK coming under pressure from the media, Trend Following on options, calculating a systems’ risk-to-stop, vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk, hard data versus stories, when to apply the ‘Moscow rules’.

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In this episode, we discuss:

How Trend Following differs to momentum
Avoiding the need to make predictions
The Federal Reserve and its effects on Trend Following strategies
ARKK’s media scrutiny following recent poor performance
The similarities between Trend Following and options
How to calculate ‘risk-to-stop’
Qualifying new investors before accepting them as clients
The “Moscow Rules"

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:02 – Macro recap from Niels

04:39 – Weekly review of performance

23:00 – Q1 Zack: How should I calculate the risk-to-stop metric?

28:42 – Q2 Peregrine: Vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk

42:09 – Q3 Graham: Can you detail some of the definitions of a breakout?

47:24 – Trend Following versus Momentum

01:00:58 – Molecules of prices

01:08:31 – Data versus stories and when to apply the ‘Moscow Rules’

01:15:00 – Benchmark performance update

01:15:52 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

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