Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy
SPW, an equal-weighted S&P500 index, has stalled since March, and is behind SPX so far this year by more than 10%. We think this is reflecting a changing Growth-Policy narrative vs early 2024. Entering this year, investor expectations were for a Goldilocks outcome – growth acceleration and at the same time quick Fed easing, starting already in March. The early Fed cuts and the consequent improving credit impulse didn’t materialize, which should weigh on growth in 2H. US activity momentum is slowing, with CESI outright negative at present, putting EPS growth projections of as much as 15% acceleration between Q1 and Q4 of this year at risk. Instead of easing preemptively for market-friendly reasons, such as falling inflation, as was the view at the start of the year, the Fed could end up easing, but reactively, in a response to weakening growth. At the same time, there is no safety net any more, the market is positioned long, Vix is at lows, potentially underpricing risks and credit spreads are extremely tight – this is as good as it gets. Adding to the picture strengthening USD and elevated political uncertainty currently, we arrive at a problematic setup for the equity market during summer. In terms of positioning, we have entered this year again OW Growth vs Value style and Large vs Small caps, and we are keeping these for 2H in the US, not expecting much broadening. The recent relative dip due to French political uncertainty is likely to become a buying opportunity as we move through 2H, but we think the risk of further drawdowns is not finished, as the potential new French government will likely try to test the limits of what they can do.
This podcast was recorded on 30 June 2024.
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