Introduction

Writing this post puts me in a weird epistemic position. I simultaneously believe that:

The reasoning failures that I'll discuss are strong evidence that current LLM- or, more generally, transformer-based approaches won't get us AGI
As soon as major AI labs read about the specific reasoning failures described here, they might fix them
But future versions of GPT, Claude etc. succeeding at the tasks I've described here will provide zero evidence of their ability to reach AGI. If someone makes a future post where they report that they tested an LLM on all the specific things I described here it aced all of them, that will not update my position at all.

That is because all of the reasoning failures that I describe here are surprising in the sense that given everything else that they can do, you’d expect LLMs to succeed at all of these tasks. The [...]

---

Outline:

(00:13) Introduction

(02:13) Reasoning failures

(02:17) Sliding puzzle problem

(07:17) Simple coaching instructions

(09:22) Repeatedly failing at tic-tac-toe

(10:48) Repeatedly offering an incorrect fix

(13:48) Various people's simple tests

(15:06) Various failures at logic and consistency while writing fiction

(15:21) Inability to write young characters when first prompted

(17:12) Paranormal posers

(19:12) Global details replacing local ones

(20:19) Stereotyped behaviors replacing character-specific ones

(21:21) Top secret marine databases

(23:32) Wandering items

(23:53) Sycophancy

(24:49) What's going on here?

(32:18) How about scaling? Or reasoning models?

---

First published:
April 15th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sgpCuokhMb8JmkoSn/untitled-draft-7shu

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---

Images from the article:

Analysis of a child character Jenny's behavior, showing realistic and unrealistic developmental traits. Two sections list age-appropriate behaviors and advanced characteristics beyond typical 2.5-year-old capabilities.

Dark-themed text discussion about a paranormal investigation scenario in a hospital complex. The text outlines an initial investigation plan, specific challenges, and tactical approach for investigators named Caius and Fiona dealing with potentially possessed hospital staff and hostile spirits.

Uber and Cartken are bringing sidewalk delivery robots to Virginia