Decision theories differ on exactly how to calculate the expectation--the probability of an outcome, conditional on an action. This foundational difference bubbles up to real-life questions about whether to vote in elections, or accept a lowball offer at the negotiating table. When you're thinking about what happens if you don't vote in an election, should you calculate the expected outcome as if only your vote changes, or as if all the people sufficiently similar to you would also decide not to vote? Questions like these belong to a larger class of problems, Newcomblike decision problems, in which some other agent is similar to us or reasoning about what we will do in the future. The central principle of 'logical decision theories', several families of which will be introduced, is that we ought to choose as if we are controlling the logical output of our abstract decision algorithm. Newcomblike considerations--which might initially seem like unusual special cases--become more prominent as agents can get higher-quality information about what algorithms or policies other agents use: Public commitments, machine agents with known code, smart contracts running on Ethereum. Newcomblike considerations also become more important as we deal with agents that are very similar to one another; or with large groups of agents that are likely to contain high-similarity subgroups; or with problems where even small correlations are enough to swing the decision. In philosophy, the debate over decision theories is seen as a debate over the principle of rational choice. Do 'rational' agents refrain from voting in elections, because their one vote is very unlikely to change anything? Do we need to go beyond 'rationality', into 'social rationality' or 'superrationality' or something along those lines, in order to describe agents that could possibly make up a functional society?

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Narrated for AI Safety Fundamentals by Perrin Walker of TYPE III AUDIO.

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