Christopher Grove: The Core Problem Underlying Canadian Resource Stocks
Dec 13, 2024
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Christopher Grove, President and Director of Commerce Resources, is a leading voice in the rare earth element market. He discusses China's dominance and its impact on the West’s supply chains in response to rising demand from electric vehicles. Grove highlights the costly aftermath of Canada’s strict mining regulations and the repeal of the uptick rule, hurting resource companies' stock prices. He shares his ambitious plans to list on the Australian stock exchange as a strategic solution to navigate these challenges.
China's dominance in rare earth elements and recent export restrictions have raised concerns over supply chain vulnerabilities for the U.S.
Strict Canadian mining regulations and lengthy permitting processes pose significant challenges for companies seeking to develop new resource projects.
Deep dives
China's Export Restrictions and Market Impact
China's recent decision to halt exports of germanium, gallium, and antimony to the United States signals a growing tension in global supply chains, particularly regarding rare earth materials. While these metals are not classified as rare earth elements, their export ban reflects a strategic maneuver that may impact the U.S.'s broader access to critical materials. This move follows historical instances where China's control over rare earth elements provoked significant concern, particularly during a trade feud around 2019. Despite U.S. attempts to secure a stable supply through initiatives such as the Defense Industrial Base Consortium, China's dominance in the market remains substantial, cornering approximately 90% of rare earth processing capacity.
Rising Demand Amidst Supply Constraints
The demand for rare earth elements is surging as industries increasingly rely on these materials for technologies like electric vehicles, wind turbines, and robotics. Despite the heightened demand, little has changed regarding new production sources since the entry of Lynas, who began production over a decade ago. As a result, prices for these elements have dipped to levels resembling those seen in 2012, raising suspicions of market manipulation by China. This manipulation not only destabilizes competition but also hampers profitability for other nations, particularly Japan, which remains heavily dependent on these imports.
Challenges in Establishing Alternative Supply Chains
The complexity of establishing a vertically integrated rare earth supply chain outside of China is underscored by stringent regulations and lengthy permitting processes in North America. The regulatory hurdles imposed on mining activities in Canada mean that companies face challenges when attempting to scale operations, with potential timelines stretching a decade or longer. Despite the government's recognition of the need for faster project timelines, the weight of existing legislation often creates significant delays. Moving forward, stakeholder engagement and reduced regulatory barriers will be essential for companies to accelerate production and reduce dependency on Chinese materials.
The Future of Rare Earth Element Recycling
Recycling rare earth elements presents an attractive alternative to sourcing new materials, yet it remains largely unviable on a commercial scale. While many companies are exploring this route, achieving positive economic returns from recycling processes has proven challenging. Historical pricing dynamics during high-demand periods saw interest in substitutes for rare earth elements, but research concluded that viable replacements were limited. Consequently, industries reliant on these materials, such as the automotive sector, continue to depend heavily on consistent and reliable access to rare earth elements despite the promising avenues for recycling.
Tom welcomes back Christopher Grove to the show. Chrisopher is President and Director of Commerce Resources and an expert on the rare earth element market.
Despite China's lack of direct involvement in the export halt of germanium, gallium, and antimony to the U.S., it underscores Beijing's dominance in the sector. With the surge in demand for rare earth elements due to technology advancements, particularly permanent magnets for electric vehicles, no new significant producers have emerged since 2011-2012. Prices have reverted to levels last seen then as a result. China's manipulation of input feedstock prices has caused unease and encouraged nations to seek alternative rare earth element sources
The US Department of Defense is investing in vertically integrated supply chains, as shown by the Defense Industrial Base Consortium and the Global Partnership Initiative. China's market dominance remains a concern but presents an opportunity for countries to invest in creating alternative sources. Chris discusses the challenges he faced as CEO of Commerce Resources, including high Canadian mining regulations and the repeal of the uptick rule on the Toronto Stock Exchange. This rule change has led to significant losses for resource companies when they release positive news. Grove plans to list Commerce Resources on the Australian stock exchange in late Q1 or early Q2 of 2025 as a potential solution to address this challenge. The discussion discusses the complexities and challenges of mining in Canada and importance of advocacy efforts to relevant government bodies.
Commerce Resources is completing an updated preliminary economic assessment for its Ashram project and awaiting responses from grant opportunities in Canada and the United States.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:47 - Rare Earths & China8:15 - China & Processing11:33 - Western Deregulation?15:50 - Substitution18:59 - Recycling?19:57 - Adapting to China21:34 - Biggest Deposits?25:45 - Personal Challenges29:21 - Miners & Shorting34:52 - Canadian Challenges38:15 - Commerce Resources41:33 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
China's dominance in rare earth elements poses challenges but also opportunities.
No significant new rare earth producers have emerged since 2011-2012.
US Defense Department investing in vertical supply chains to reduce dependence on China.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/commercerescceWebsite: https://commerceresources.com/
Mr. Christopher Grove is President and Director of Commerce Resources since September 2014. Previously, he worked as Corporate Communications for Commerce since 2004 and has significant contacts within the financial communities in North America and Europe. Mr. Grove joined the Commerce Resource board in 2012 and has been active in representing the company abroad.
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