Bloomberg Surveillance S&P 500 Climbs as Earnings Kick Into High Gear
20 snips
Dec 3, 2025 
This podcast features Nancy Lazar, Chief Global Economist at Piper Sandler, who breaks down the surprising resilience in corporate profits despite weak labor data. She discusses how consumer spending is rebounding and predicts stronger hiring as capital expenditures rise. Joining her is Michael Green, Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, who critiques the official poverty line's shortcomings and highlights the economic pressures of modern living costs. He also warns about the risks of benefit cliffs and their impact on households.
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Profits And Capex Precede Hiring
- Employment is a lagging indicator so profits and capex lead hiring.
- Nancy Lazar expects job formation to pick up by mid-2026 as firms spend on tech then hire.
Tariffs Function As A Regressive Tax
- Nancy Lazar says tariffs act like a regressive tax that keeps inflation sticky.
- She estimates tariffs raised the price share impact from 2% to over 10% of GDP this year.
Monitor Policy, Not Jobs, For Consumer Turnaround
- Watch central bank policy and refinancing for consumer resilience.
- Nancy Lazar notes lower rates, easier bank lending and HELOC refinancing are lifting consumer spending ahead of jobs.