Episode 404: Sweden's Stalemate: Why a Winning Bloc Still Can't Form a Government

Sweden's voters handed the centre-left opposition a win by just three seats, 176 to 173, and yet no one can form a government. The Sweden Democrats lost ground at the ballot box, but they may still hold the key to what happens next. With investors, NATO allies and Ukraine supporters watching closely, this is a stress test for one of Europe's steadiest democracies.

Host Dominic Bowen is joined by Anders Sannerstedt, a political scientist at Lund University who studies the Sweden Democrats, local elections and Swedish party politics. Together they unpack why winning an election doesn't guarantee governing, and what happens if the parties can't break the deadlock.

In this episode:
- Why the opposition is four parties that aren't natural partners, from the Left Party to the Centre Party
- How the Sweden Democrats evolved from their white supremacist roots into a right-wing populist party, and why they lost ground this time
- The economy, healthcare and gang violence as the issues that shaped the vote
- The urban-rural divide and why the Sweden Democrats do well in small towns and the south
- What would change under a left versus a right government, particularly on climate policy
- Why foreign and defence policy, including NATO and support for Ukraine, is unlikely to shift
- Anders's biggest international risk concerns: Russia and climate change

The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical instability and organised crime to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.

Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.
Subscribe for expert conversations on geopolitics, security, economics, conflict, resilience and global affairs.

Tell us what you liked!