Hosts engage in a fun family-style competition to determine the Indicator of the Year, mixing humor with sharp economic insights. Bitcoin's ascendance and consumer confidence take center stage as they debate key economic indicators. They dissect the quirky relationship between unemployment and job vacancies, showcasing the beverage curve's relevance. A whimsical discussion about inflation expectations adds flair, while predictions for 2025 insightfully connect to broader economic shifts, including AI's impact and political trends.
Consumer sentiment serves as a crucial indicator, reflecting Americans' emotional perceptions of the economy amidst inflation and political changes.
Looking ahead, inflation expectations and global trade dynamics are proposed as vital indicators influencing future economic behavior and strategies.
Deep dives
Support for Public Media
Supporting public media is discussed as a vital contribution to the community, especially in today's environment where information and context are crucial. The opportunity to listen to NPR podcasts without interruptions from sponsorship messages is highlighted, allowing listeners to enjoy content more freely. For avid podcast consumers, the cumulative time spent listening to sponsor messages can add up significantly over the course of a year, leading to a call to action to consider what that time is worth. By choosing to support NPR, listeners can help maintain the quality and accessibility of public media while enjoying additional perks like bonus episodes and merchandise discounts.
Indicators of the Year 2024
In a spirited discussion, the hosts present their cases for what should be considered the Indicator of the Year for 2024. Consumer sentiment emerges as a key indicator, reflecting Americans' emotional perceptions of the economy amidst inflation and political shifts. The price of Bitcoin is also proposed as an indicator, symbolizing a complex relationship with institutional trust and market speculation as its value has surged. Lastly, the broken beverage curve, illustrating job openings versus unemployment, is highlighted as an optimistic sign that inflation can be managed without significant job loss, depicting an unusual economic stability.
Predictions for 2025 Indicators
Looking ahead to 2025, the hosts speculate on what will be significant economic indicators. Inflation expectations are proposed as a crucial indicator, influencing consumer behavior and potentially fueling inflationary cycles based on perceptions of future price changes. The mythical R-star, the ideal interest rate for the economy, is highlighted as vital for understanding investment strategies amid uncertainties about future growth. Global trade also comes into focus as a pivotal factor, with discussion around potential tariffs under the new administration, and how such tariffs might impact international commerce and economic connectivity.
This year, there was some economic good news to go around. Inflation generally ticked down. Unemployment more or less held around 4-percent. Heck, the Fed even cut interest rates three times. But for a lot of people, the overall economic vibes were more important. And the vibes... were still off.
We might have achieved the soft landing the Fed was hoping for, but we saw some wackiness in the relationship between unemployment and job vacancies. Meanwhile, Bitcoin went to the moon. We have covered all of that in this past year, but which of these economic stories really defined the year?
Fortunately, we don't have to decide. You all do.
On today's show, a collaboration with our daily podcast The Indicator, we have Indicator Family Feud! Two Planet Money hosts enter, one Indicator host... also enters. And all three leave, having had a great time with lively discussion and light ribbing. Plus, some mild scheduling issues. But, we can't stress enough that no hosts were harmed in the making of this podcast.
Then, we look ahead to 2025 to see what indicators we think will define the coming year – the future and the past, on our latest episode! Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.