The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series Watch This Number for Recession Indicators || Peter Zeihan
Jun 20, 2025
Mark your calendars for July, as signs of a possible recession loom. The podcast dives into critical economic indicators, especially the rise in first-time unemployment claims, highlighting their importance amid policy shifts and supply chain challenges. It also explores the paradox of rising unemployment despite ongoing industrial construction. With retiring baby boomers reshaping the workforce, there’s a call to rethink traditional unemployment benchmarks as the economy shifts.
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July's Recession Risks
- July could be the key month when the US economy either faces or avoids a recession due to product shipment interruptions from China.
- The unusual nature of this recession comes from policy decisions rather than general economic weakness, making it somewhat predictable.
Unemployment Claims as Economic Gauge
- First-time unemployment claims are a real-time, reliable economic indicator because people file immediately after job loss.
- Claims rising to 248,000 still seem okay generally but should ideally not increase and need a new equilibrium due to retiring baby boomers.
Tariff Impact on Construction and Jobs
- Industrial construction spending remains flat amid tariff uncertainties, halting new job creation despite ongoing projects.
- Tariff unpredictability discourages new investments, worsening economic expansion and influencing unemployment figures.