109 - A Second Arab Spring: Imminent or Impossible?
Nov 26, 2023
auto_awesome
David Schenker, an expert from the Washington Institute, discusses the potential for a second Arab Spring and the tactics used by governments to suppress political movements. The podcast also explores the role of social media, AI, and bot armies in manipulating public opinion, as well as the challenges of democratization in the Middle East.
The Middle East is experiencing similar red flags and economic factors as the Arab Spring, potentially setting the stage for a second wave of protests.
Autocratic states in the region have taken measures to prepare for popular uprisings, including using surveillance technology and manipulating information.
The outcomes of the Arab Spring have been largely disappointing, with economic downturns, political instability, and the rise of oppressive regimes.
Deep dives
Growing anti-government protests in the Middle East and North Africa
There has been a significant increase in anti-government protests across several countries in the Middle East and North Africa. The region is experiencing similar red flags and political and economic factors that were present during the first wave of uprisings, known as the Arab Spring. Youth unemployment, a major catalyst for the previous uprisings, is still a severe problem, with Tunisia's youth unemployment rate surpassing the levels during the Arab Spring. Additionally, the Middle East has now seen an increase in the percentage of people living in poverty, surpassing Latin America. Overall, the worsening conditions and lack of progress from the previous uprisings potentially set the stage for another wave of protests.
Efforts by autocratic states to secure their regimes
After witnessing the impact of the Arab Spring uprisings, many autocratic states in the region, such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, have taken measures to prepare for popular uprisings and protect their regimes. These efforts include using technologies like surveillance software, shutting down the internet during protests, and manipulating information to control the narrative. The willingness of these governments to intervene and suppress movements from neighboring countries has also increased. While these measures have been effective in some cases, the underlying discontent, economic challenges, and polarized societies remain, making it uncertain if these measures will prevent future uprisings.
The limitations and failures of the Arab Spring
Looking back, the outcomes of the Arab Spring have been largely disappointing. The promised positive changes in governance, democracy, and economies have not materialized in most cases. Instead, countries like Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Tunisia have experienced economic downturns, political instability, civil wars, and the rise of oppressive regimes. The lack of robust existing political parties or infrastructures to build upon has allowed Islamist movements to fill the power vacuums, despite their policies often not aligning with the preferences of the majority. This failure of the Arab Spring, along with the negative consequences, has created an atmosphere of exhaustion and skepticism among the population, making a full-scale revival of similar uprisings less likely, although not completely ruled out.
The Importance of Controlling Telecom Infrastructure
Controlling a country's telecom infrastructure is crucial for governments in maintaining order and control. Examples include Saudi Arabia's complete control over its state telecom company and China offering Huawei infrastructure in multiple countries.
The Role of Social Media, Browsers, and Websites
Social media platforms like Twitter played a significant role in the Arab Spring. Governments, aware of the power of these platforms, have sought to gain influence and control over them. For example, Saudi Prince Awali bin Talal invested billions in Twitter, enabling geolocation filtering and suppression of unfriendly content. Governments also use technology like AI and bot armies for pushing their political agendas and suppressing dissent.
As unrest simmers throughout the Middle East, echoes of the initial Arab Spring resonate amid similar economic triggers, fueling speculation about a potential second wave. Many are beginning to ask: Is a second Arab Spring on the horizon? Where is the spark likely to come from, and have the governments in the region fortified their strategies to quell such popular uprisings? We put these questions and more to our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - David Schenker (Washington Inst) - Michael Sexton (Third Way National Security) - Rich Outzen (Atlantic Council) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:07 PART 2 - 22:00 PART 3 - 42:22 Outro - 1:01:55 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/
