GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish The $30 Trillion Crash!
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Apr 4, 2025 Dario Perkins, a macroeconomic expert at TS Lombard, and Freya Beamish, an analyst specializing in global economic conditions, dive into pressing financial questions. They discuss whether the U.S. is now 'uninvestable' amidst fears of a global recession. The duo highlights the impact of aggressive tariff policies on market sentiment and inflation dynamics. They also address the complexities of the labor market and advocate for shift towards safer investments in today's volatile environment.
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Market Underreaction
- Markets are panicking due to Trump's trade policies, representing a genuine underreaction.
- If fully implemented, the policies could cause much larger market moves.
Flawed Trade Policy
- Trump's trade policies lack depth and seem based on flawed understanding of international trade.
- The tariffs, based on bilateral trade positions, are bizarre and unsettling for investors.
Capital Repatriation Risk
- Significant capital inflow to the US over the past decade is now at risk.
- International investors are considering repatriating capital, potentially destabilizing markets.