Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 2, 2025
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Apr 2, 2025 Kelly Ann Shaw, a partner at Hogan Lovells US, discusses the potential market reactions to President Trump's tariff plan. Binky Chadha from Deutsche Bank offers insights on the uncertain impacts of tariffs on equities, pondering if they can recover from correction territory. Julia Coronado, a macroeconomic expert, explores the broader outlook for the U.S. economy and inflation amidst these developments. Together, they dissect the complex interplay of trade policies, market confidence, and economic indicators in a tumultuous landscape.
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Trump's Tariff Plan Objectives
- President Trump's tariff plan has two main objectives: addressing the U.S. trade deficit and leveling the global trading field.
- These tariffs may target specific countries with high trade barriers and initiate negotiations for reciprocal barrier reductions.
Trump's Negotiation Style
- President Trump's negotiating style involves ambiguity, making it difficult to predict outcomes with certainty.
- However, his past trade deals, like USMCA and agreements with Japan and China, suggest a potential for eventual certainty.
Chadha's Recession Prediction
- Binky Chadha predicts a potential mild recession in the second and third quarters of the year.
- Despite this, he maintains a bullish year-end S&P 500 target of 7,000, citing historical equity market behavior during mild recessions.