The Rollup Tariffs, USA Fiscal Dominance, & Global Liquidity with Felix Jauvin
Jun 5, 2025
Felix Jauvin, aka 'Fejau', is a macro analyst and the host of the Forward Guidance Podcast, who dives deep into the intersection of fiscal policy and global markets. He explores how current tariff policies influence Bitcoin and gold, questioning what happens when anticipated investment strategies actually succeed. Jauvin highlights macro signals that savvy traders track, examines the potential of specific crypto companies to boost GDP, and discusses the implications of U.S. fiscal dynamics on emerging alternatives to dollar dominance.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Fiscal Dominance Drives Bitcoin
- Fiscal policy now dominates over central bank actions in driving the macro outlook for Bitcoin and markets.
- Huge US fiscal deficits since COVID have propelled Bitcoin's bull run despite tightening monetary policy.
Shift From Tariffs to Capital Controls
- US tariffs aimed at reducing trade deficits are losing effectiveness with diminishing returns.
- Future focus will shift to capital controls targeting foreign ownership of US assets, reshaping global capital flows.
Bitcoin-Fiscal Deficit Correlation
- The correlation between M2 money supply and Bitcoin price is spurious, driven by a hidden fiscal deficit variable.
- Bitcoin responds more to global fiscal impulses than simplistic liquidity measures like M2.