Daybreak Weekend: US Home Sales, Europe Stocks, Softbank Investment
Dec 20, 2024
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Catherine Thorbeck, Asia tech columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, shares her insights on SoftBank's bold $100 billion investment plan in the U.S., aiming to create 100,000 jobs in AI and infrastructure. She discusses the implications for the U.S. economy and the competitive landscape in Japan's automotive industry, exploring potential mergers like Honda and Nissan. Thorbeck also delves into the challenges of traditional retail in the U.S. while contrasting it with the performance of off-price retailers during these turbulent times.
The U.S. housing market is facing challenges due to high prices and interest rates, causing a significant slowdown in home sales.
SoftBank's $100 billion investment pledge in the U.S. aims to create jobs focused on AI, despite concerns over funding and past effectiveness.
Deep dives
Current State of the U.S. Housing Market
The U.S. housing market is experiencing considerable challenges in 2024, primarily due to high home prices and elevated lending rates, significantly slowing home sales. Although existing home sales saw a minor rise recently, forecasts indicate a temporary boost in new home sales driven by recovery in southern markets affected by hurricanes. However, these positive signs are tempered by a nationwide decrease in demand, as rising interest rates above 7% dampen buyer activity. The competitive landscape is shifting as existing home supply begins to meet pre-pandemic levels, particularly in previously hot markets like Florida and Texas, highlighting the need for builders to offer more incentives to attract buyers.
Despite ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty, the retail sector has demonstrated resilience, with recent GDP data indicating a growth driven largely by consumer spending. Notably, specific retailers like Aritzia and Abercrombie & Fitch are exceeding sales expectations during the holiday season, while department stores like Nordstrom are expected to outperform due to their strategic adaptations. However, some retailers face challenges, particularly Kohl's, which is projected to see significant declines in sales due to inventory issues and mismanagement. The varying performance of retailers underscores a shift in consumer behavior, as even high-income shoppers increasingly gravitate toward off-price retail options amid ongoing inflation.
Future Outlook for European Stock Markets
European stock markets are currently underperforming compared to their U.S. counterparts, with political instability and cautious economic forecasts contributing to a less favorable investment climate. Analysts predict slight gains for the European stock 600 index in 2025 but emphasize the potential for strong performance rooted in certain sectors, such as luxury goods, due to expected Chinese consumer spending recovery. However, political uncertainty, particularly with upcoming elections in Germany and ongoing economic concerns, could continue to deter investment interest. Economists suggest diversifying portfolios with European equities, as they remain undervalued compared to the high-flying U.S. markets, providing an opportunity for growth.
SoftBank's Major Investment Plans in the U.S.
SoftBank has announced a significant intention to invest $100 billion in the U.S. over four years, aiming to create approximately 100,000 jobs focused on artificial intelligence and related infrastructure. However, the details of how this funding will be secured are unclear, given SoftBank's current cash reserves. Historically, SoftBank's past commitments have raised questions about actual job creation and the efficacy of its investments in the U.S. tech ecosystem, necessitating careful monitoring of the outcomes of this new pledge, especially in light of Masayoshi Son's prior experiences with high-profile investments.
Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.
In the US – a preview of new home sales and retail outlook.
In the UK – a look at what’s on the horizon for the European stock markets.
In Asia – a look at Softbank’s pledge to invest $100 billion in the U-S over the next four years, and a look at a potential merger between Honda and Nissan.