The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast 994: Jonathan Taylor's Outlook, Quarterback Bounce-Back Candidates, and More
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May 30, 2025 Is Jonathan Taylor overvalued this season? The discussion dives into the potential for quarterback bounce-back candidates, including Dak Prescott, while questioning the hype around the Bears' offense. Strategies for navigating running back roles and target shares are explored, alongside insights on tight end rankings through the ZAP model. Discover how to maximize value in fantasy drafts and the emerging role of AI in decision-making for fantasy sports. Get ready for an insightful take on drafting tactics!
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Low TD Rates Signal QB Value
- Quarterbacks with low touchdown rates below 4% the previous season tend to exceed fantasy draft expectations the following season significantly.
- High touchdown rate quarterbacks often face regression and underperform relative to their high draft positions.
Be Cautious with Jonathan Taylor
- Avoid overvaluing Jonathan Taylor due to the uncertain Colts offense and variable target share with different quarterbacks.
- Consider being underweight on Taylor at current draft cost despite his talent because of sustainability concerns.
Too Many Weapons Limit Ceiling
- Teams can support multiple fantasy-relevant receivers, but too many mouths can limit individual player's ceiling, especially non-elite players.
- Elite wide receivers generally maintain high target shares regardless of other competition.