Episode 5
On today's show I speak with Aahan, founder of Prometheus Research, a research service with the goal of democratizing finance making institutional-quality insights and research available to the public.
1. Background of Macro research
- Understanding underlying mechanisms over analyzing data
- Monetary contracts and how we got here
- Money grows faster than underlying labor and capital
- Monetary policy - tighter is needed to tame inflation
- Interest rates need to be higher than CPI to lower future inflation
2. Monetary and cost push inflation
- Money infused into personal incomes and economy with production and labor
- Fed tools
- Lower real growth
- GDP growth
- Nominal spending is greater than real spending
3. Stagflationary Nominal Growth with Tightening liquidity
- Returns not a feature of asset class but a feature of sample selection
- Pressures on production and employment increasing
- Lower output and less need for employment
- Returns on assets relative to cash is negative
- Real incomes and spending weaker so business sales also weaker
4. Allocations
- Cash, commodities, bonds, dollar
5. Stagflation
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