CoinDesk Podcast Network Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Is Dead | CoinDesk Daily
Oct 9, 2025
Arthur Hayes challenges the traditional belief in bitcoin's four-year cycle, suggesting that monetary tightening is the real driver behind past bear markets. He also predicts what that means for bitcoin's future pricing. In a surprising twist, Luxembourg's sovereign fund diversifies its portfolio by investing 1% into Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting a growing trend in Europe. Additionally, the podcast features a highlight about Shane Copeland becoming the youngest self-made billionaire after a major investment in his platform, Polymarket.
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Polymarket's Rapid Rise
- Shane Copeland launched Polymarket in June 2020 after studying prediction markets for a year.
- His platform saw a breakout during the 2024 U.S. election with over $3 billion wagered on outcomes.
Monetary Policy, Not Halving, Mattered
- Arthur Hayes argues past Bitcoin bear markets were driven by monetary tightening, not the halving cycle.
- He predicts Bitcoin is unlikely to enter a near-term bear market because monetary conditions should remain supportive.
Luxembourg's Small But Symbolic Bitcoin Bet
- A Luxembourg sovereign wealth fund allocated 1% of holdings to Bitcoin ETFs, marking a Eurozone state-level entry.
- Officials said the move signals growing maturity and Luxembourg's leadership in digital finance.