Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 51: Is The Worst Of The Trade War Over? With Rupert Mitchell
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May 13, 2025 Rupert Mitchell, an insightful writer known as The Blind Squirrel on Substack, dives into the impact of the US-China trade detente, suggesting the worst might be over. He explores potential causes for the next bond market upheaval and shares his thoughts on private equity, energy, and commodities. Rupert also discusses the rise of driverless cars and the evolving Canadian energy landscape, emphasizing new investment opportunities and the challenges of geopolitical complexities.
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Trade War Worst Phase Over
- The worst phase of the US-China trade war appears to be over, signaling a trend shift.
- Despite ongoing tariffs, the trade pause likely keeps recession risks below 50%.
Fiscal Deficit Risks Bonds
- There's a high risk that bond markets will react strongly to increased fiscal deficits.
- Stock market gains may depend on the fiscal choices made about tax cuts and spending.
US Stocks Rally Is Technical
- The recent US stock market rally is mainly driven by technical factors and options hedging.
- The long-term trend favors increasing allocations to international equities over US stocks.