The Bid

245: Stock Picker's Guide to 2026: How AI and Earnings Will Shape Stock Market Trends

Jan 16, 2026
Carrie King, Global Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, shares her insights into the evolving landscape of stock markets as we approach 2026. She discusses the significant impact of AI on various sectors, highlighting its expansion beyond semiconductors. Carrie sheds light on the compression of high-level valuations masking strong corporate quality and analyzes how rate cuts are benefiting emerging markets, alongside Japan's ongoing reforms. She emphasizes the challenges of diversification and advises investors to embrace volatility for long-term gains.
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INSIGHT

Valuations Mask Higher Company Quality

  • Carrie King argues today's high PE multiples reflect far higher corporate quality than during prior bubbles.
  • She adjusts the effective multiple to about 17x and expects mid-teens EPS growth to support returns in 2026.
INSIGHT

AI Winners Will Broaden In 2026

  • AI will remain the dominant conversation but beneficiaries will broaden beyond semiconductor suppliers.
  • Expect a shift from capex winners to companies gaining from cost savings and operational efficiency.
ADVICE

Prepare For AI Timing Mismatches

  • Prepare for timing mismatches between heavy AI spending and realized returns and expect volatility.
  • Favor large-cap companies with ample free cash flow when playing the AI build-out to reduce risk.
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