Katy Kaminski discusses the disconnect between equity and fixed income markets. Sheila Bair warns of the dangers of speculation and bubbles. The podcast explores the impact of higher yields and low interest rates on productivity.
The equity market has been disjointed from the fixed income market, with the former ignoring the risks posed by higher energy prices and the need for higher rates.
Technical signals indicate that the equity market has been relatively positive, while the fixed income market has consistently performed well, especially this month, signaling a potential repetition of last year's trends.
Deep dives
Equity Market Recognition of Upside Risks
The equity market has been relatively positive, ignoring the need for higher rates. However, last week, there was a breakout in the fixed income market, signaling that the market is recognizing the real risks, such as higher energy prices, that could impact the equity market.
Technical Signals in Equity and Fixed Income Markets
Technical signals indicate that the equity market has been relatively positive but more tentative recently. Conversely, fixed income signals have consistently been short for months and working well, particularly this month. Additionally, there has been a breakout in the energy market and the dollar trade, suggesting a repetition of last year's trends.
Expectations of Higher Rates and the Bond Market
The bond market is experiencing a shift, with increased short positions and a potential bottom forming in the long end of the curve. As the market recognizes the need for higher rates and the challenges posed by inflation, energy prices, and supply chain issues, long term rates are expected to rise, leading to a potential sell-off in long term bonds.
Katy Kaminski of Alpha Simplex sees equity markets disjointed from fixed income. Earl Davis of BMO Asset Management sees 2024 as a cyclical bull market. Holger Schmieding of Berenberg expects upside for Europe next year. Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair says more banks are going to fail. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance