This podcast explores the significance of the Iowa caucuses in shaping the 2024 presidential race, with a focus on Trump's strong hold on supporters in Iowa and the potential weakness in his polling numbers. The speakers discuss alternative options to Trump and the uncertainty of the Iowa caucus outcome.
Read more
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
Despite Trump's overwhelming support in Iowa and his lead in the polls, the race for second place in the Iowa Caucuses remains relevant, providing an opportunity for candidates to demonstrate viability and build momentum.
The outcome of the Iowa Caucuses will have an impact on the narrative and trajectory of the Republican primary race, regardless of Trump's inevitable victory, and can contribute to the long-term health and renewal of the party.
Deep dives
The Iowa Caucuses' Changing Dynamics
The 2024 Democratic primary calendar has been changed, giving South Carolina the first spot instead of Iowa. However, on the Republican side, Iowa remains the first nominating contest. Donald Trump, running as an incumbent, currently leads the polls by an average of 30 points. While other candidates have had moments of success, they have struggled to make significant gains on Trump. The tradition of retail politics and the unique rules of the Iowa caucuses seem to be losing their impact in this election.
The Strength of Trump's Support in Iowa
Donald Trump enjoys strong support among Republicans in Iowa. His campaign, while not employing a traditional approach of visiting all 99 counties, has focused on large rallies and has a sophisticated data-driven operation engaging past supporters and identifying new potential voters. Trump's opponents, who lack the same historical data, struggle to challenge his dominance. Despite some Republicans expressing a desire for an alternative, the overwhelming support for Trump and his celebrity-like status make it difficult for other candidates to gain meaningful traction.
The Challenges Faced by Trump's Challengers
Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are leading the pack of Trump challengers, but they are currently more focused on each other than on directly challenging Trump himself. Trump's significant lead and strong base of support make it difficult for his challengers to gain momentum. While Trump's opponents hope to consolidate support and pull off an upset, the polls show that many DeSantis supporters would choose Trump as their second choice if DeSantis were to drop out. Winning against Trump in a one-on-one race would require a significant shift in the current polling trends.
The Importance of the Iowa Caucuses
Despite the overwhelming advantage held by Donald Trump, the race for second place remains relevant. The contest in Iowa provides an important opportunity for candidates to demonstrate their viability and build momentum. Even if Trump emerges as the clear winner, a competitive fight for second place still sends a signal about the state of the Republican Party and its support for Trump. Additionally, a strong showing by candidates challenging Trump can potentially contribute to the long-term health and renewal of the party. The outcome of the Iowa caucuses will influence the narrative and trajectory of the Republican primary race.
Tommy takes a look at the 2024 Iowa Caucuses and their impact on the 2024 presidential race, asking the all-important question — does this even matter anymore? With Trump leading every poll, it can feel like the first-in-the-nation vote is nothing more than a battle for second place. But the Des Moines Register’s Brianne Pfannenstiel, Iowa State University pollster Dave Peterson, and GOP insider David Kochel make the case for how Iowa could still shape the Republican primary.
For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@crooked.com and include the name of the podcast.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode