The Macro Trading Floor Buy The Bubble or Watch It Burst?
126 snips
Oct 10, 2025 Alf and Brent dive into the explosive AI-driven market rally and its risks. Brent shares insights from hedge fund managers in Singapore, revealing mixed feelings about the bubble's longevity. They discuss the complex relationship between financial conditions, inflation, and AI investments. The hosts ponder the potential peak of AI euphoria and how government shutdowns could reshape spending dynamics. With trading advice against shorting bubbles, they explore the broader implications on currencies and assets amid this volatile economic landscape.
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Episode notes
Listeners Consume The Podcast At 2x
- In Singapore one PM told Brent he sounded sick because he listened to the podcast at 2x speed.
- This shows many institutional listeners consume the show at accelerated speeds.
Dollar Bearishness Feels Fragile
- Many hedge fund PMs in Singapore are bearish on the dollar but their thesis feels stale and inconsistent.
- Brent sees stronger dollar prospects as seasonal hedging and cyclical weakening arguments look weak and policy shocks may reverse.
AI Rally Is Circular And Pro‑Cyclical
- The AI rally is highly circular: chip makers fund AI firms which then buy more chips, creating pro‑cyclical feedback.
- Brent worries this loop is a financial‑stability risk that can persist until a shock (e.g., inflation or a capex slowdown).
