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Henrik Zeberg: The Everything Market Bubble - Why & When It’s Bursting

6 snips
Dec 11, 2024
Henrik Zeberg, Head Macro Economist at Swissblock, delves into the perilous state of global markets, warning about the impending burst of the 'Everything Bubble.' He discusses overvalued stocks and the risks of deflation, alongside the potential for stagflation by late 2025. The conversation turns to Bitcoin's volatility and the absurdity of recent market excesses, including outrageous art sales. Zeberg emphasizes the impact of Federal Reserve policies and offers critical insights on investment strategies as economic challenges loom.
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INSIGHT

Business Cycle Analysis

  • Henrik Zeberg's business cycle analysis uses leading, coincident, and lagging indicators.
  • These indicators, available publicly, help understand economic sequence and predict market movements.
INSIGHT

Declining Indicators

  • Leading indicators have declined for 24 months, similar to pre-2008.
  • Coincident indicators (real economy) should weaken, but official data like non-farm payrolls seem suspicious.
INSIGHT

Deflationary Thesis

  • Zeberg predicts deflation due to economic slowdown and overvalued markets.
  • This will cause price pressures, unlike stagflation, as capacities are underutilized and consumers struggle.
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