The Dispatch Podcast
Assad's Reckoning | Interview: Jonathan Spyer
Dec 7, 2024
Jonathan Spyer, Director of Research at the Middle East Forum and a Jerusalem Post writer, dives into the complexities of the Syrian conflict. He discusses the precarious state of Assad’s regime post-ISIS and the swift territorial advances of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Spyer analyzes Kurdish dynamics amid American troop presence and Turkey’s strategic interests in the region. He also explores the potential ramifications of Assad's collapse for Iranian influence and the broader Middle East landscape.
44:14
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Quick takeaways
- The insurgency in Syria has led to a critical power shift with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham gaining significant territory, challenging the Assad regime's stability.
- The complex dynamics of foreign involvement, particularly from Russia, Iran, and Turkey, heavily influence the ongoing conflict and future outcomes in Syria.
Deep dives
Changes in Syrian Control Since ISIS Defeat
Since the defeat of ISIS in late 2019, Syria has effectively been divided into three areas of control, each backed by external powers. The Assad regime, supported by Russia and Iran, controls a significant portion of territory, while the U.S. has backed Syrian Kurdish forces east of the Euphrates. Meanwhile, a gathering of Sunni Arab and Islamist rebels operates in the northwest under Turkish oversight. Recent military offensives led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra) have dramatically changed the landscape, culminating in the swift conquest of Aleppo province, marking a significant shift in the balance of power in the region.
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