

First Friday: The Dollar Is Weak, Bonds Are Expensive, and We Owe WWII-Level Debt
13 snips Jun 6, 2025
The job market added 139,000 jobs in May, but the bond market is where the real drama unfolds, with yields spiking and the dollar weakening, raising inflation concerns. Tariff tensions linger as court rulings complicate trade dynamics, especially for the whiskey industry. On a regulatory front, potential changes to accredited investor rules could democratize access to private markets. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency news shines as the SEC steps back from treating most crypto as securities, signaling a more favorable environment for digital assets.
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Job Growth Slows Moderately
- The U.S. added 139,000 new jobs in May, beating expectations but showing a slower growth rate compared to April.
- This indicates a moderate slowdown in job growth but not as severe as initially anticipated.
Trade Uncertainty Slows Growth
- Trade war uncertainty creates business challenges due to unstable tariff threats, like looming 50% tariffs on the EU.
- This environment leads companies to adopt defensive postures, slowing growth and complicating forecasting.
Treasuries Better Economic Indicator
- The stock market is a moody teenager influenced by hopes and fears, not a reliable economy indicator.
- Instead, 10-year Treasury yields offer a better economic bellwether reflecting inflation expectations and economic strength.