American Prestige Bonus - Prediction Markets and the Financialization of Death w/ Sam Biddle and Jay Caspian Kang (Preview)
Jan 11, 2026
In this enlightening discussion, Sam Biddle, a journalist from The Intercept, and Jay Caspian Kang, author of Time to Say Goodbye, explore the unsettling realm of prediction markets. They delve into the ethical quandaries of betting on coups and invasions, revealing how these platforms blur moral lines. The conversation touches on DARPA's controversial experiment with terrorism forecasting and the troubling normalization of profit-seeking from violence. Biddle and Kang challenge the implications of human suffering becoming a tradable asset in our financialized world.
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Small, Capped University Markets
- Sam Biddle recounts early university prediction markets that capped bets and limited liquidity compared with today's platforms.
- His friends tried to pile $400 bets on a mayoral candidate but couldn't scale beyond small capped wagers.
DARPA Helped Legitimize Prediction Markets
- Sam Biddle explains prediction markets were popularized by DARPA to surface actionable signals like likely terrorist locations or perpetrators.
- That program was shut down because people found monetizing such forecasts ghoulish, despite its intelligence appeal.
Markets Designed To Surface Insider Signals
- Daniel Bessner frames prediction markets as systems designed to surface insider information rather than prevent it.
- He and Jay note that early critics, like Ron Wyden, warned against betting on coups or violent events decades ago.